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*Music*
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[Music]
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Hello and welcome to a new issue of Abspalfunk, where I occasionally, almost never,
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deviate from the subject. Well, deviate, funny. My God, the last few days have been a
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Absolute fever dream. I had thought,
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There is one, two
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Topics I want to talk about,
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But that which is most important to me
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I noticed, it's the weather.
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Nothing is more trivial than the
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Talking about the weather, because everyone has something to do with it.
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Weather to tell if it's good weather or
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Bad weather. No, seriously. We had already had weather warnings that the whole of Germany
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sinks into a snow chaos and at least here in North Rhine-Westphalia in the Ruhr area it was
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A little …, it was nothing. If we have five millimeters of snow here,
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Then that's a lot. I know there are places that have strapped a little more,
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Yes, where you can also toboggan, but by and large that was not the case. It sees
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In other parts of Germany it is different. So Black Forest 50 cm of fresh snow. In the North
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from Germany in places almost a meter with snowdrifts and there it was a bit
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heavier. There were also restrictions on rail transport or it was completely out of order,
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The roads were no longer passable. The thing that irritated me was that people now
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Go to the metrologists with torches and forks. For it was made great Tamtam,
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Schools have failed and nothing has happened. I've seen videos,
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where people have made a report from the snowstorm, where they then stop a
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snowfall effect and wind noises on it, because that's such a blizzard and then
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"haha" sees bright sunshine and a few centimeters of snow. And that would be the first
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There was snow this year, so this winter. Keep in mind that winter is
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It is only a few days old, but it is known to be on the 21st or 23rd. December is the
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Started in winter. I believe at 4 p.m. because it has something to do with how the Earth orbits the Sun.
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If it has reached a certain point, then it is winter. Yes,
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Let's think about it. People made fun of it and then made the big "Mimimi",
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Because so much has been said and nothing has happened. There have been moments in the past,
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where no warning was given or where the metrologists were surprised. I just think like this here
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2010 in Münster, where power poles have bent over because of the wet snow on the lines
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It is frozen and it became a great burden that the masts have bent away. And there it was
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also complained. Why didn't anyone warn us? Why didn't anyone say anything? I think you can
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People just don't do it right, no matter what they do. If you think about it this way,
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so the Ahrtal, where warnings were given, but these warnings were not passed on, there was
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stand up as well. Why hasn't he been warned? And then there's the entire management.
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with the warning messages throughout Germany reconsidered and has also started again,
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the civil protection a bit to keep an eye on, has once looked,
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Are the alarm systems still working, the sirens? And since then there are also in Dortmund,
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because I currently live in Dortmund, yes again siren tests. So I already had this
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Once said, at that time in Datteln, every Saturday, 12 o'clock, the sirens were thrown at and the
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It was totally normal. I was almost always looking forward to it as a kindergarten child, because it was Saturday,
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I was at home with my beloved mother, my dad was kind of always something in the garage
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Or he was there and then you could hear the sirens and that was totally normal.
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And I remember what a Tamtam it was here in Dortmund, because even the nurse,
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She was scared because she didn't expect it at all. me
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Mine, it's also been great announced. And how they introduced it,
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with the fact that also the warning message comes on the mobile phones, with which, what is the name again,
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"Civizen Broadcast" she almost threw away her phone when it started to kill. And
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As soon as the warning came, she almost threw her phone away again.
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Because she was so scared. Because you're not used to it here,
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That stop is happening. I always think I'd rather be warned too often and you're wrong.
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How not to warn. You can see what happened in the Ahrtal, what kind of
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There was huge damage. Well, the building damage would have been one way or another, but how many
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People have also died. That would have been much less if they had
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Warning passed. But no, now you make fun of it or get upset about it,
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that just school failed for nothing, that you just sent people off for nothing
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has. I can only say that on Friday my partner left and almost instead of
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The weekly shopping on Saturday, she did it on Friday. So that you can stop on Saturday,
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If it's really that bad, you don't have to get out. Because she works in nursing,
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I also worked in nursing until my stroke and I worked in rescue.
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worked. And what I collected regularly at Glatteis in the winter were pensioners or
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Old people who lay down on their snout and then traditionally break their thighs.
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That was what was most represented. And that's one thing you can avoid.
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I mean, I don't understand anyway. The people who have the most time must
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Also go shopping when it's catastrophic outside. Everyone else stays at home and that's it.
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Group of people who absolutely go shopping or to the post office or something else. And if
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If they then lay down on the carving, then Holland is always in need. I know this from nursing,
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if someone who was fit and mobile before, has survived the time and then stops curing it
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Most of them are in the care case, because they never recover from it again.
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become physically fit so that they are able or virtually on the stand,
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as they were before. These are usually deficits that are there.
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Joa, where were we? Reports in the event of natural disasters. And why this year, too,
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After a long time we have a colder phase again. Well, that's just weather. And if you ever
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If you look at the numbers, this cold weather has become less. Feeling the winter begins
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As far as the growing season of plants is concerned, alas, that is already the case in autumn,
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the winter starts much later, the winter much later, the winter rather stops and the spring comes
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Much sooner. And these are things that you can just observe in nature yourself,
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without having to look at any statistics of any weather people.
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You can see how long the trees are green, how long or how fast the trees are.
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Begin to turn green again. I also wonder why there are still people.
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They believe that any changes are taking place. Whether it's man-made or
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It is a natural phenomenon. I just don't understand how to say,
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"Well, that's not." So when I think about being a child and I was born in 1977, in the 80s,
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There were also winters that had less snow or had no snow at all and then there were winters,
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They were extreme. We once walked around on a Halterner reservoir, because there is a meter
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The fish were frozen in the ice. Huge fish. That's what I found, of course
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Totally impressive. I can remember winters in the 90s that were so violent,
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that on the canals – Germany is the largest canal node in Europe, there are five canals
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together. It was so cold that the ships could no longer sail. And we on
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the old ride, that's such a dead arm between dates and Waldrop, where you stop then
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I was able to skate and that was also released. The old journey had been drained of the water,
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There is only a few meters of water left. That was released and then there was winter,
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we had less snow and as I said in 2010, where there was no electricity in the Münsterland, for weeks,
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Because the power poles were gone, we also had a lot of snow. So much snow,
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There were no more buses or trains. It was like this again and again,
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But the distances, where there was sometimes snow, have sometimes become less. And I know
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where I had fallen for my foot, where my spoon had fallen on it, I had been in the hospital for so long
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The day before I was released, it snowed so badly in January.
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And there was so much snow that there were no buses here for a week
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in the district where I live, because the streets were still so heavily icy and I also every
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Sometimes with the RTW, because there were no taxis, with snow chains - that's what I already have
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I haven't seen him in a long time, to the hospital.
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had to be driven for follow-up inspection.
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So the first three days daily and then
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Only once every two weeks. And how
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The weather was better and
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roads were more accessible, I could
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And then to the surgeon.
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You have to imagine that. I then spent 14 days because nothing drove,
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I had to be transported with the RTW. Yeah, hefty. And that's what the entire healthcare system has.
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And, of course, faced with a huge problem. But we're not that great either.
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It has been warned that this could happen. It has been said that it is with heavy snow,
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At least that's how it counts. But hahaha with us heavy snowfall. What's going on? Yes that was stupid
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because the ground had not even been so cold and there is the snow on the
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Soil has fallen, it has become liquid and then the temperatures have dropped at night.
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Under the snow was a really thick layer of fat ice. This thick layer of ice was about
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here in front of the house on the sidewalks two centimeters thick and only as the housing association
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sent a squad with people with crowbars, really rods, not here
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so small, so small cow's foot or so and have freed the walkways from the ice, you could then
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Here too, move halfway safely. But also the entrances and the stairs from the house,
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There was so much fat ice everywhere. Of course, these are things that stay with me.
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Reminder. And I remember my balcony was full of snow. I had on the balcony about
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60 centimeters of snow. It was as if all the snow was there.
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Pushed in. Was kind of funny how I opened the balcony door and
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Thank goodness the snow didn't come in. Yes, but you don't have the metrologists with you.
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Burning torches and dung fork chased through the village. It always reminds me so,
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I have already mentioned this in the last issue of the series, to which
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Episode of Simpsons, where the comet or asteroid was supposed to hit Earth. It is not so
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It was a small stone that came downstairs. And then you are
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They tried to destroy the observatory because they warned us all wrong.
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And that's exactly what we have right now on YouTube, on TV, in the media libraries, everywhere in the world.
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News station, all the metrologists, even the tiler. Oh there's something coming to Germany,
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Here is the front and behind it is the cold front and the high and the low, here is the alley. And
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Now you're worried about being warned. Tomorrow, for example, schools will be here.
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Closed because it could start raining tonight. And so we had in the night now
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from Sunday to Monday and in the night from Saturday to Sunday we had here minus 10 degrees and the
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It's not much warmer than 0 degrees. That means it's all still
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really deep frozen, the whole ground, everything possible. And they assume that it stops
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tomorrow can give quite smooth ice, because tomorrow morning so at 6 o'clock somehow stops raining.
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Joa, that can happen. That's good if the kids don't have to go to school. I mean
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even if here in the Ruhr area somehow every 500 meters after the primary school stands and
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every district that holds something on itself has a secondary school here in Dortmund,
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You don't have to expose your children to the danger of knowing what to do.
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It's bad enough when he's on his way to work and these squirrels are parting.
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I remember how I felt about patterning.
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I drove and there I was
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In the winter, I was riding a motorcycle.
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Driven and it was ass cold
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It happened and it all started suddenly.
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It rains and then it
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All the way, thank God.
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I didn't drive the highway or anything.
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These roads are so between
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Dates and Ehrkenschwick and Rechtenkausen
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Chews have suddenly turned into an Ace track. And because then so
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Cell phones weren't that common yet and I had one, but when I was 18, I had one.
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One with credits and that was of course somehow used up, because
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If you had to pay for every text message, I couldn't call now.
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and ask me if I can postpone the appointment due to the
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weather conditions. So I'm at Glatteister
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Jumping with the motorcycle. I can give you
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Just say one thing when you're on a motorcycle.
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with both legs on the floor and then
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It runs at about 15 km/h.
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I had sore muscles in my
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Neck and upper arm from holding.
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That had been fierce.
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Yes, but that's why I know what it's like when
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you then stop on such a mirror-smooth
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Drive the road. I can still have that one
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I remember a year when I was in Bochum.
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The old people's home worked. This was on
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the mountain in Bochum-Weidmar, the DERK-Haus.
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house and so half an hour before my night shift was over, there was a rain and
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Then everything was frozen. On the cars was about such a 5 to 10 millimeters thick
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Ice and no one could climb the mountain. The people who were on the mountain,
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The road almost slipped under it, but no one came up. And so I was able to,
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Until then somehow halfway there something went, I could then quasi still a normal layer on
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hang on to my night shift to somehow provide basic and emergency care for the residents
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to place. It's all annoying, of course, and of course it kind of didn't get great.
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warned.
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During the night shift you didn't livestream back then, just like today on
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TikTok is common here, but has once heard a bit of radio when taking tablets
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He put it or something. And there was no report. And honestly, I'd be glad
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If there had been a report, it would have been somehow
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You can make people dance more.
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So there are just more people there.
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Always shit water on the money, my God, no.
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But if you're previously responsible for two living areas as a night chef
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and you can make them all fresh for the morning
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And there's nothing in the kitchen that's going on again.
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People all have cabbage steam.
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Yeah, it's going to be difficult.
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In how many thousand parts shall you dissolve, tear yourself apart?
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Well, yeah, that used to be something.
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And I would have been grateful if there had been a warning,
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because then you could have made a phone call and then
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Throw a colleague out of bed and come by, it will be bad later.
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But instead, you get upset now.
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That didn't get so bad.
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This is just like when the first models come in winter, as the summer will.
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And that's still a few months away.
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And at least since the butterfly effect, the butterfly effect, you should know,
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that such models can have a completely different result, even if only the
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the 11th or the 12th or the 15th Place after comma increases by 1 or decreases by 1,
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instead of a 5, now that's a 6 or a 4.
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If this happens, then the model may have a completely different result after 30 days
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or after 60 or after 90 days, as stop if the value stops plus 1 or minus 1.
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But then they get excited.
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There is so much excitement, as they said, summer of embers.
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In the rehearsal podcast there is a episode called "Glutsommergespräche" and there it will be
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This is because the summer was perceived as relatively cool.
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but were nevertheless seen in the statistics, summer temperatures throughout the summer,
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They just weren't as high as the last few years. You've gotten used to that, too. This is
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Just like now. Now the winter is ash cold, because you can adapt to the mild temperatures in summer
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I'm used to it in winter and the summers are so hot. But every time there will be
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Well, that's it, but we were promised a summer of fire. Yes, yes. Stones everyone
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They're cheating. Breaks the supercomputers that calculate the models. Stone the mathematicians,
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They make the formulas and calculations for it. I mean you could also
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Start believing again that God does all this for us, that God does everything for us.
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Created, directed and conceived in nature, then it is much easier.
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I mean, then you just go and say, 'Yes, the evil, evil, evil God, he's got this.'
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Well done, and then that's okay.
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Or stop the dear God, he has now given us a lot of sun.
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Nowadays, so much depends on the precise weather forecast that farmers are able to determine the harvest time of their crops.
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Coordinate fields afterwards. And clearly the weather can now be at the smallest level, so-called
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Micro-climate, micro-weather may be different than the larger model. It's always a question,
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How many grid points do I divide the world into? And the more points I have,
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The proportionally greater the number of computational operations that have to be performed.
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Of course, the computers have become much faster in recent years and the
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will continue to happen and at the latest with the introduction of quantum computers, where each
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Qubit means more than a thousand times the computing power, is used in such calculation operations in
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Quantities and to huge extents become commonplace, that you can calculate the weather much more precisely,
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Because you can have a lot more data points. Yeah, what am I supposed to say about that? I like the weather
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predict. I used to, in my time, where I was very active, in amateur radio, to give me the raw data.
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The NOAA satellite itself. All you need is a simple dipole antenna.
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which you put up from roof packs or in the garden. If there is a NOAA satellite
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flying over one, so within sight, then you can receive the signal. This is free
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Receptive, that's allowed. And then you can easily convert the raw data into an image. There was
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Already in the 90s the best programs for. And then you could almost feel the weather
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Watch in real time. Sometimes you had to flip the pictures because there's a difference,
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whether the satellite coincides from north to south or from south to north, because then the image is
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Just upside down in the mirror. And then you could almost see cloud structures moving,
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And that was just fun to watch. Something could happen in the course of the day.
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Of course, this was not a precise prediction, but it was fun. And there are enough people,
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who sit there a small weather station at home and just look at themselves,
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how the air pressure changes and temperatures change, humidity and closing
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then also look at observation and experience, yes there could be something coming or it will simply be a
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Nice day today. Yeah, and then I'd say we don't run with flaming torches
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and dung forks to the observatory and are glad that the snowstorm was not quite so bad
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in Germany as expected and should simply be grateful that we live in a time,
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where it is possible to simply warn people of a danger. Because it is
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It's not a saying that it happens, it's always "it could be." And I think
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I always prefer to be prepared that something could be, than blind, blue-eyed into the situation
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to come. Thanks for listening and I would love to see you next time.
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That is, when it is called deviance. Goodbye, Sasha.
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Weather warnings everywhere – and in the end … felt nothing happening. Schools are closed, supermarkets are full, social media is fun.
But what does a warning really mean?
In this episode of The digression It deals with weather forecasts, public outrage and the question of why precautionary measures are often only accepted when it is already too late. From a personal perspective – shaped by experiences from care, emergency services and everyday life – it becomes clear: Warnings are not a promise, but a protection mechanism.
Why ‘preferably warned too much’ is not a sign of panic.
Why models work with probabilities – not with certainty.
And why mockery about precautions can be more dangerous than snow, ice or rain itself.
A calm, thoughtful digression on responsibility, memory, technology, societal expectations – and what happens when we only ask about the disaster:
Why didn't anyone warn us?

🧭 Topics Outline
1. Getting started: The Wrong Alarm
Perception, ridicule, public reactions.
2. Why We Are Triggering Warnings
Expectations, ‘nothing happened’.
3. Warning ≠ forecast
Basics: Probabilities, models, uncertainty.
4. Technology behind the forecasts
Weather models, computing power, limits of accuracy.
5. Warning systems in everyday life
Sirens, Cell Broadcast, Tests – Irritation vs. Protection.
6. Personal experiences from care & rescue
Consequences of lack of preparation, real consequences.
7. Remembrance instead of indignation
Extreme winter, power outages, Ahrtal – what we forget.
8. Precaution as a responsibility
Individual, social, institutional.
9. Conclusion: Better prepared than surprised
Quiet arrangement, personal conclusion.
Links to the issue:
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Contributors to this episode
Playing time: 0:33:13
Date of admission: 11.01.26
This episode is from season 4, there are a total of 4 seasons.
One According to Funk Publication Cartel Production - Where stories are transmitted unmistakably.
Podcast license:
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